Predictions

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Cecil B DeMille Life Time Achievement
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:55 am
With 2012 well and truly here what do you think will be the hits and misses? Will Seven be able to keep its dominance over the others? How will Big Brother and all of Nine's reality fare. Will TEN continue to go on a downward spiral into non-existence? What show will be the first to be given its marching orders?

Post away. Be interesting to see what everyone thinks.

Heres my take on 2012

Overall its going to be a year of highs and lows all round. Seven will hit a flat spot during July/August due to Olympics but will rebound come September. Nine will have a stronger year due to a number of factors including TEN on the decline and a tad better programming including those massive share getting Olympic Games.

Heres a breakdown.

Seven

  • Seven will win total people and 3 of the 4 demos. It will lose the younger 16-39 demo to Nine because of the reality crap Nine are dishing out.
  • Revenge, Good Christian Bitches and Once Upon a Time will give Seven a new batch of US shows that it has been lacking these past couple of years
  • Please Marry My Boy will last 3 weeks
  • BHG will be split, airing Thursday in the AFL States while staying on Fridays in Sydney and Brisbane helping both nights for the network.
  • Titanic will be a gigantic flop
  • My Kitchen Rules will outrate Masterchef Australia
  • Deal or No Deal will CANCELLED by the middle of the year and replaced with another game show.
  • Packed to The Rafters will return strong but weaken as the series goes on.
  • Winners and Losers will drop to 1m each week
  • Seven News will launch a brand new set along with graphics to go with it. Chris Bath will be given 6 months or a change will happen but not Mark Ferguson. This is even though i believe Chris isn't the problem in Sydney. The stories are. Its time Seven fight back here. Nine isn't much better.
  • Sunrise will claw back viewers from Today on the East Coast but it will be a close race.
  • The Morning Show will continue to dominate and wipe Mornings and The Circle off their feet.
  • AFL will help Seven secure close weeks thanks to Saturday Night Footy.
  • Downton will be down slightly but still dominant
  • Talent will continue to thrive in a chocker block reality schedule but DWTS will take a hit but hover around 1.2m
  • Seven's new drama A Place Called Home will premiere very strongly before settling around 1.2m
  • 7TWO and 7mate will continue to lead the pack in digital channels but only just.
  • Seven will win a share of the Rugby League contract in some shape or form
  • They will also gain the Olympics back due to Nine not having the money to pay for them. They will however share it with PayTV like the current deal.

Overall Seven will continue to the leader of the pack but will take a 0.5-1% hit but won't fall as far as people think due to TEN's demise. They'll win 35 weeks of 2012 and average around 30-31%

Nine

  • Nine News will win Sydney but fall elsewhere while the breakfast race will hot up.
  • Mornings with Sonia and David will fail to bring viewers in and will be up against it from the get go. They will take viewers initially from TMS but won't bode well with viewers. Its going to be an interesting year ahead in the mornings.
  • Excess Baggage will be dead weight for Nine
  • The Voice will become a bonafide hit and will be given a 2nd season. It will be one of the highlights for Nine in 2012.
  • Tricky Business will perform enough to get a 2nd season but be labelled the "Rafters Clone". It will start well before dropping off to around 1m.
  • Underbelly will be down year on year while Beaconsfield and Howzat will perform.
  • The Olympics will bring Nine a stronger success in the 2nd half of 2012 giving Big Brother BIG ratings early on but then the novelty will wear off quickly and it will drop to sub 1m before being given the door.
  • Farmer Wants a Wife will given the axe while Celebrity Apprentice will lose its sheen and not live up to the first season.
  • 2 Broke Girls will start ok and then slowly build to a good enough average but Suburgatory will be mixed and end up on GO!
  • Top Gear will return strong before yet again being stuffed around by Nine and shafted.
  • CSI will be on 3 different days in 2012 and Alcatraz will flop.
  • Hamish and Andy will again prove popular but by the end of the season they will be gone.
  • Nine will lose half of its NRL coverage to either Seven or TEN and possibly lose the Finals Series or State of Origin.
  • The Olympics will be lost to Seven as Nine don't have the money to purchase the next set of TV Rights.
  • GO! will taper a bit with the endless repeats of Big Bang and co waning on viewers.
  • NBN and other regional channels affiliated with Nine will be forced to cut its News service to 1/2 hour and ACA will move to 6:30pm due to the 7pm stripping of shows.

Overall Nine will be up on 2011 in total % but that is mainly due to 2 weeks of the Olympics and buzz around for NEW shows before losing their sheen. They will take out 4-5 weeks with an average of around 28-29% but still fall short of Seven by quite a margin.

[b]TEN[/b]

  • Breakfast will struggle for a while but gradually start building and eat into both Today's and Sunrise's figures but will still be a long way behind.
  • The Project will struggle and be given the axe replaced by Masterchef and a NEW stripped reality format at 7pm
  • Young Talent Time will get high ratings for the first few weeks before slipping below 1m.
  • Homeland and New Girl will become TEN's new hits in a very weak market
  • TEN's primary share will fall to 10% or lower on a Saturday night due to no AFL.
  • The Biggest Loser will come out on top of Excess Baggage even though they are due to not compete with each other directly.
  • TEN's main channel will continue to slide in the first half of 2012 but creep up with help from the new CEO with fresh ideas. They will come third in all demos. Eleven on the other hand could become the #1 digital channel of 2012.

Overall TEN will fall to one of its lowest figures in a while and Warburton will be put on notice. They won't win one single ratings week and get around 19-20% as a combined total nationally.

ABC

I'll give you an overall statement and say ABC will slip in 2012. They will win 0 weeks and have an average of 14-15%. It won't be that pretty.

SBS

What can i say here. There isn't that much to talk about. Its SBS.

So thats my predictions. What do you think?
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Emmy Winner
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:08 am
I think 35 weeks is way too generous greysfan. I think Nine will return to the success they had in 2010. How many weeks did they win that year, think it was around 15.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:28 am
You missed out Big Brothers return Greys - or is that already telling us something ...
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:10 pm
Jayel wrote:You missed out Big Brothers return Greys - or is that already telling us something ...


No I didn't miss it. Mentioned it with The Olympics. It will start strong and then drop.

MillerT2 wrote:I think 35 weeks is way too generous greysfan. I think Nine will return to the success they had in 2010. How many weeks did they win that year, think it was around 15.


I am not so sure about that but will see what happens. Seven will still be dominant in 2012. I am not just saying that I actually believe it. Nine won't get close to 10 weeks let alone 15. They will have a slightly improved year but not that big a jump. I don't get how people can say Seven are going to fall flat on their face. Not that much has changed. They won 2011 with authority. Anyway will see what happens. Thats the good thing about predictions you can predict what you like ;)
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Emmy Winner
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:16 pm
I hope Big Brother does well. Nowadays, we don't get enough live reality TV. It was a few years ago when we seemed to drift more to pre-recorded shows like MasterChef and The Block. In 2011, all we really had was The X Factor which was live. This year, I am hoping that The Voice and Big Brother work. There isn't enough live reality TV out there. Last year, AGT reinvented themselves by adding another round to the show. After watching a bit of America's Got Talent on PayTV over summer, it would be great if Australia's Got Talent adapted to a live show too.
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Cecil B DeMille Life Time Achievement
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:18 am
greysfan wrote:
Jayel wrote:You missed out Big Brothers return Greys - or is that already telling us something ...


No I didn't miss it. Mentioned it with The Olympics. It will start strong and then drop.


Oh yes, I looked but missed it.

Me too MillerT2, although I'm not planning on spending as much time watching it as I did the first time around - that became excessive!
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:59 am
Homeland and New Girl will become TEN's new hits in a very weak market

I'm hoping TEN don't stuff Homeland around too much. I don't know that it will rate that well - from what I've seen, read, heard, and am hoping, it seems to be way too good a show for the masses to flock to. Leading to average ratings and lack of respect by TEN.
My prediction is another year of crap and annoyance on FTA. Original, huh?! 8-)

(Oh, - I guess it won't - but I hope BB fails big, big, BIG time. My all time most hated show!)
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:24 pm
Revenge will premiere with over 1.8m viewers.
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Emmy Winner
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:39 pm
greysfan wrote:Revenge will premiere with over 1.8m viewers.


It will definitely do better than MKR but in a relatively competitive timeslot, I don't know how much better it will do.

Emmy Winner
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:39 am
I thought I'd give my predictions for next week's massive week of premieres.

DWTS: 1.3m
Voice Sun: 1.7m
Logies: 1.3m
Avatar: 700k
AGT Mon: 1.6m
Block Mon: 1.4m
Voice Mon: 1.3m
AGT Tue: 1.5m
Block Tue: 1.2m
Voice Tue: 1.2m
AGT Wed: 1.4m
Titanic: 900k
Block Wed: 1.2m
Celeb App Wed: 1.0m
Offspring: 900k
Block Thu: 1.2m
Celeb App Thu: 900k
Block Fri: 1.0m
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